Labour’s love lost?

When Keir Starmer dramatically welcomed Natalie Elphicke into the Labour party in a piece of political theatre engineered for maximum attention (she crossed the floor at the beginning of Prime Minister’s Questions, the weekly showpiece in parliament) a certain amount of consternation ensued.  I say ‘a certain amount’ as the party’s discipline has held up pretty well of late, in contrast to the unhappy infighting on Rishi Sunak’s benches. 

In online, politically active conversation, though, and in (often anonymous) briefings from inside the parliamentary Labour party, however, all was not going well for Starmer.  Many women were angry that Elphick had been admitted to the party after she had vocally supported her husband when he was accused – and later jailed – for sexually assaulting two women. Labour MP, Jess Philips, broke cover on a podcast to declare that seeing her join Labour was like ‘being punched in the gut’, and said that the defection could have been handled more sensitively in light of Elphicke’s previous comments.  By late afternoon Natalie Elphicke had apologised for her previous statements and committed to tackling violence against women.

Meanwhile, over on the News Agents podcast, Labour peer, Shami Chakrabarti, conceded that the Labour leadership could have handled the defection better, perhaps dealing with  concerns upfront.  Reacting to what Emily Maitlis described as a ‘shitshow’ Chakrabarti invoked the principle of ‘big tent politics’ which meant that Labour could accommodate a ‘changed’ Natalie Elphicke, and that it should also re-admit Diane Abbott – who has apologised for comments made over a year ago, but is still awaiting the result of the party’s independent process of investigation into her conduct. The last use of the ‘big tent’ label in British politics I can think of, was the festival series dubbed ‘Tory Glastonbury’, founded by Conservative MP, George Freeman, to court younger voters in the early years after the EU referendum.

Starmer’s welcoming Elphicke has not just been criticised from the left; in the Guardian, Polly Toynbee, who has been sympathetic to Starmer’s leadership, pronounced it a ‘mistake’ and a ‘stumble’ in his record.  Elphicke’s ‘off the scale’ brand of Conservatism – she was a member of the Common Sense faction alongside Suella Braverman – should have ruled her out for Labour.  Toynbee quoted Neil Kinnock, Labour’s 1980’s moderniser, saying that even ‘broad churches’ have ‘walls and there are limits’.  So much for the ‘big tent’…

However, against the siren voices of protest, there was the drumbeat of Starmer’s defenders, who declared the moment of drama of the defection an irresistible win for the party.  These voices – mostly men – noted that as Elphicke is not intending to stand in the imminent General Election, her move is one in the eye for Rishi Sunak, more than any lasting contamination of the Labour brand.  Moreover, it gives Starmer the opportunity to emphasise that former Tories are welcome to vote for Labour in the forthcoming contest, increasing the magnitude of the party’s widely-predicted victory.  If right-wing voters can be persuaded to vote Labour, it then becomes an opportunity to build towards a multi-term Labour government.  Any short-term discomfort will fizzle out.

The problem with this narrative may be that it assumes that voters are as likely to hold their noses as party leaders.  It’s a strategy not without risk.  Today Starmer unveiled Labour’s immigration policy plans in Dover, Elphicke’s constituency, on the frontline of that issue.  He contrasted Labour’s proposals with the ‘gesture politics’ of the Conservatives and their Rwanda policy and proposals like using wave machines to push back boats in the Channel. The trouble could be, that the theatrics of Elphicke crossing the aisle, might strike some as just as performative, at a time when trust in politics is hardly high.  The concern of those who now wonder where the lines are drawn between parties, may not be as easily dismissed as some around the Leader of the Opposition seem to think.  Should those potential voters lose some of their love for Labour, it’s leaders might reflect on Shakespeare’s words in Love’s Labour’s lost: “Let us once lose our oaths to find ourselves/Or else we lose ourselves to keep our oaths”. Or they could take a look at the memes of Twitter/X – Sauron for Labour, anyone?

The Goverload

I’ve had a political fever dream – all too often in the last few years, my surreal imaginings have ended up having some element of truth, so, this time, I thought, why not share it with the group?

Over on X, I was in conversation about Rishi Sunak’s prospects, following his assertion that a May 2^nd election is no longer on the cards.  If the May local elections go badly, and current restiveness amongst the Tories boils over, could there be yet another party leader? In that event, who, I mused, would possibly want the pre-election gig?  Anyone wishing for a longer-term run as Leader of the Opposition, and then as a possible future PM, would surely run a mile. And the pool of those not in that boat, but with any leadership ambitions, is, I think, currently almost uniquely shallow. So, between those with future ambitions, and those eminently unsuited to the role of Rishi replacement, who could possibly emerge as a pre-election successor to Sunak?  (Incidentally, I happened to mis-type Sunak as Sunk in my X discussion – which for political, Freudian slips, pretty much says it all….)

Now, I know what you’re thinking – this is a last-throw-of-the-dice government, and all signs are that the long-reigning Conservatives are cruising for a loss, in the face of a massive Labour poll lead.  We’ve had four Prime Ministers since 2016, so who could be so loopy as to suggest another one before the next-Election drubbing? You maybe don’t need a fever dream to think that the answer might be the Conservative party. But you have to pray they would keep the contest to the parliamentary party, and not inflict another full-on party leadership race on us….

And this raises the question, who among the current band could realistically mount a parliamentary-party-only challenge to Sunak, in the event that everyone gets thoroughly fed up and/or there’s obliteration in May’s local elections?  I present a plausible (sorry) answer: Michael Gove.  A man who always been there, a man who the Guardian’s sketch writer, Jon Crace, once described as ‘a man who has almost become a dictionary definition of someone who cannot be trusted’, the man who stood up yesterday to unveil what is virtually the only policy ‘idea’ (no matter how flimsy and poor) that the government has had recently. Gove’s illustrious career is on a downward trajectory.  He is a doyenne of over a decade of Tory rule in which he is thoroughly embedded.  He has occupied several notable Cabinet positions – and some that you might struggle to name in a pub quiz.  This is the man whose political epitaph currently reads ‘close, but no cigar’.  If you were him, mightn’t you think that a quick spin at the captain’s wheel was worth a go after all those years as bosun?

I’m not suggesting that any of this dreamtime speculation is in the interests of the country or even perhaps of the Conservative party, but then again, in the last few years that’s hardly unusual.  Possible political futures are ever harder to pin down   Welcome, my friends – who know of my fondness for a political re-wording of a song – to the Goverload….

The Goverload (with apologies to Talking Heads)

 A terrible signal

Polls too weak to even recognise

A gentle collapsing

The removal of insiders

I’m touched by your pleas

I value these moments

I have history longer than many realise

In voters’ eyes

A frequent returning

And leaving unnoticed

A condition of no mercy

A change in the political weather

I have views to remember

The center is missing

Who questions how the future lies

In the Govester’s eyes?

The gentle collapsing

Of every surface

We travel on the quiet road

…. the Goverload

Deep in your hearts you know it makes a kind of sense….